Freedom Broker analysts presented their investment idea of the day for Tesla (TSLA) shares and recommend buying them with a target price of $425 over a two-month horizon. At the current quote of $354.08, the upside potential is 20.03%. The main catalysts, the experts say, are the accelerating rollout of robotaxis and a possible beat of the market forecast for EV deliveries in Q3.
What Tesla is
Tesla is the largest manufacturer of battery electric vehicles in North America. In addition to its automotive business, the company produces energy storage systems and develops autopilot, a robotaxi service, the driverless Cybercab model, and the humanoid robot Optimus.
The analysts believe that in the coming months investors’ attention may shift from the current results of the automotive segment to the pace of autonomous-transport development. It is the scaling of robotaxis that can strengthen the perception of Tesla as a technology company, not just an automaker.
The robotaxi fleet has moved to accelerated growth
According to Freedom Broker analysts’ estimates, Tesla has likely reached sufficient confidence in the technology to move from robotaxi testing to a faster expansion of the service. In June, 69 Tesla robotaxis were registered in Texas, and by early September their number exceeded 400. The fleet began to grow especially noticeably at the end of August. By comparison, in Q2 only a few dozen such vehicles were operating on U.S. roads: the company explained the slow rollout by the need for additional testing and safety requirements.
An additional catalyst was the launch of the Cybercab model in Texas on September 3. This is a fully autonomous vehicle without the usual steering wheel and pedals. Cybercab already makes up 10% of Tesla’s robotaxi fleet and over time may replace the Model Y vehicles used in the service. In mid-September the company also plans to present the model in China.
The analysts believe that the growth in the number of robotaxis and the appearance of Cybercab on the roads could attract additional interest in Tesla shares in the coming months.
Deliveries may exceed market expectations
The second argument behind the investment idea is EV sales. Deliveries of China-made Tesla vehicles in July and August 2026 rose 19% year over year to 179,000 vehicles. The Shanghai plant typically accounts for about half of the company’s global deliveries, selling cars both in China and for export, primarily to Europe.
Freedom Broker allows for Tesla’s total Q3 deliveries to reach 480,000 vehicles. The FactSet consensus is 461,000. The company is set to publish its quarterly operating data on October 2, so a result above expectations could be a separate driver for the shares.
The situation in Europe remains mixed. In August, Tesla registrations rose 279% in France and 104% in Denmark, but fell 79% in Norway and Spain and 41% in Sweden. At the same time, the overall European EV market in July increased 41.8% year over year.
Revenue rose, but profitability declined
In Q2 2026, Tesla’s revenue increased 26% year over year—from $22.496 bn to $28.236 bn. The automotive segment generated $20.516 bn, up 23% from a year earlier. Energy business revenue rose 13% to $3.139 bn, while services and other increased 50% to $4.581 bn.
Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles, 25% more than a year earlier. The number of active subscriptions to the FSD driver-assistance system increased 56% to 1.48 mn. Deployed energy storage volume rose 41% to 13.5 GWh.
Operating profit fell 57% to $398 mn, and operating margin declined from 4.1% to 1.4%. GAAP net income fell 5% to $1.114 bn, adjusted net income fell 17% to $1.153 bn. Diluted GAAP EPS was $0.32 versus $0.33 a year earlier.
Operating cash flow increased 85% to $4.697 bn, however capital expenditures rose 142% to $5.789 bn. As a result, free cash flow was negative at minus $1.092 bn versus a positive $146 mn a year earlier. At quarter-end, Tesla had cash and short-term investments of $43.524 bn.
Vehicle recalls remain a risk factor
In August, Tesla announced its largest recall in the Chinese market—about 2.98 mn Model 3, Model Y, Model S, and Model X vehicles. The reason was flush door handles, which in the event of a low-voltage system failure after a serious accident could hinder passengers’ exit and rescuers’ access to the cabin.
The company intends to address the issue primarily via an over-the-air software update. After an accident, the system will automatically lower the windows, and the vehicles will also receive markings indicating the location of the mechanical handles.
In addition, in late summer the number of registered vehicles in France rose 279% year over year, and in Denmark by 104%. At the same time, the figure fell 79% in Norway and Spain and 41% in Sweden.
The decline in Norway is partly due to a high comparison base: in 2025, buyers accelerated EV purchases ahead of changes in tax policy. The uneven country-by-country figures keep uncertainty around European demand, however strong momentum in France and Denmark could support Tesla’s overall Q3 deliveries.
Not an individual investment recommendation.