Freedom Broker Warned About the Risks of Valuing OpenAI at $1.2 Trillion

OpenAI is holding preliminary talks with major investors about a new funding round, in which the company could be valued at around $1.2 trillion. The terms of the deal have not yet been agreed and may change.

OpenAI is a U.S. technology company that develops artificial intelligence systems. Its flagship product is ChatGPT, a digital assistant capable of creating and analyzing text, images, and software code, as well as answering users’ questions. The company does not yet have a stock ticker.

Freedom Broker lead analyst Natalia Milchakova considers the предполагаемую valuation extremely high relative to OpenAI’s expected revenue. Interest from private investors confirms confidence in the company’s and the AI services market’s prospects; however, a slowdown in demand or a deterioration in financing conditions could lead to a sharp reassessment of its value.

OpenAI’s valuation could rise by 41%

In March, OpenAI completed its previous funding round with investor commitments of $122 billion. At that time, the company was valued at $852 billion. The new target of $1.2 trillion implies an increase of about 41%.

The talks are at an early stage, and the initiative, according to media reports, came from potential investors. This points to strong demand for a stake in the company even before it goes public.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the company’s initial public offering will not take place in 2026. He linked the decision to AI safety risks. An IPO is a process in which a private company first offers its shares to a broad range of investors and begins trading on a stock exchange.

Previously, Freedom Broker reported on a possible OpenAI listing after Anthropic’s flotation. At the time, 2027 was being considered, but the final timing is still not determined.

Valuation is 50 times projected revenue

According to media reports, OpenAI’s revenue for fiscal year 2025 totaled about $13.7 billion. By the company’s own forecast, the figure could reach $24 billion in 2026, rising by about 75%.

At a $1.2 trillion valuation, the ratio of the company’s value to projected annual revenue would be around 50. This multiple shows how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of a business’s revenue. The higher it is, the faster growth in financial performance the market expects in the future.

According to Natalia Milchakova, a level of 50 is unprecedentedly high even for fast-growing technology companies preparing to go public. Such a valuation requires maintaining strong growth rates and successfully turning OpenAI’s developments into sustainable sources of income.

What could crush OpenAI’s valuation

The main risks remain a possible decline in demand for AI services, market saturation, and intensified competition. The company’s valuation may also be affected by model training costs, computing power, and partner payouts.

If investors become more cautious about the industry or OpenAI faces difficulties raising capital, its valuation could drop sharply. This could delay an IPO, since going public at a lower valuation would be less advantageous for the company and its current investors.

Freedom Broker previously assessed OpenAI’s risks amid a legal dispute with Apple. Analysts noted that legal and reputational issues could also affect the timing of the company’s market debut.

Can OpenAI get ahead of Anthropic

Anthropic is a U.S. developer of artificial intelligence systems founded by former OpenAI employees. The company created the digital assistant Claude and emphasizes the safety and controllability of its models. Anthropic does not yet have a stock ticker.

Anthropic is preparing for an IPO on the Nasdaq and could receive a valuation of about $2 trillion. If this benchmark holds, OpenAI’s new round at a $1.2 trillion valuation will not allow it to surpass its competitor in value.

Previously, Freedom Broker assessed the choice of Nasdaq and the prospects for Anthropic’s offering. The final valuation ratio of the two companies will depend on financial performance, offering terms, and investor sentiment toward the AI industry.

Not an individual investment recommendation.