Freedom explained the reasons behind Nasdaq’s record and assessed the outlook for the U.S. market

The U.S. Nasdaq Composite index closed trading on September 21 at a new all-time high for the first time since June 2. It rose 2.26% to 27 122.09 points. The broad-market S&P 500 index gained 1.49%, posting its best daily result since August. According to Freedom analyst Natalia Milchakova, investor optimism is tied to expectations for U.S.-China talks, as well as falling oil prices.

What supported U.S. equities

The Nasdaq Composite is a market-cap-weighted index that includes shares of more than 3,000 companies traded on the Nasdaq exchange. The technology sector has the greatest influence on its performance. Among the index’s largest companies are Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Broadcom. Since the start of 2026, the Nasdaq Composite has risen 16.7%.

The S&P 500 tracks the performance of shares of 500 of the largest publicly traded U.S. companies across different industries. Since the start of the year, the index has added 13.4%.

Milchakova считает one of the main drivers of the rally to be expectations for a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington.

Relations between the countries remain tense due to tariffs and technology restrictions. The U.S. is curbing supplies to China of advanced semiconductors and equipment for artificial intelligence, while Beijing is using restrictions on exports of rare earth metals as a retaliatory measure. Additional disagreements are linked to access for Chinese cars to the U.S. market and arms supplies to Taiwan.

Investors are counting on the talks to extend the trade truce, ease export restrictions, and ensure U.S. companies have more stable access to critical raw materials. Such agreements would reduce the risks of new tariffs and disruptions in technology supply chains.

Cheaper oil also provided additional support to sentiment. According to Oninvest, Brent futures fell 3.4% to $100.34 per barrel, while WTI fell 4.5% to $95.78.

What the next benchmark for investors will be

Despite the rise in the indices, the U.S. stock market remains volatile, Milchakova notes. Key political risks remain U.S.-China trade relations as well as the conflict in the Middle East. A breakdown in talks between Washington and Beijing could lead to new tariffs and restrictions on technology supplies, which would put pressure primarily on semiconductor makers’ stocks. A new escalation in the U.S.-Iran standoff could push oil prices higher again, strengthen inflation expectations, and ухудшить the outlook for the broad market.

More clarity, according to the Freedom analyst, may come from the upcoming corporate earnings season. It will begin in the first half of October with reports from the largest U.S. banks, and its active phase will fall in mid- and late October, when leading technology companies release results. Financial performance and management guidance will help investors assess whether the rise in prices corresponds to the real state of the business.

Companies’ financial results and their executives’ forecasts will give investors additional reference points for assessing business prospects.

Technology stocks are rising, but risks remain

The market’s advance was accompanied by strong performance in individual technology companies. Thus, on September 21, Meta (NASDAQ: META) shares rose more than 10% during trading after Wells Fargo raised its target price and following the success of the Muse AI assistant app.

At the same time, earlier Freedom analysts warned about the risk of a correction in the U.S. market due to expensive oil and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields around 5%. These factors increase inflationary pressure, raise the cost of financing, and may reduce the attractiveness of equities.

This is not an individual investment recommendation.