Freedom: a $40bn loan could increase investment risks in SpaceX

SpaceX (SPCX) is discussing raising $40bn to purchase Nvidia (NVDA) chips. Natalia Milchakova, Lead Analyst at Freedom Broker, warns that such large-scale financing could significantly increase the debt burden and raise risks for holders of the company’s shares and bonds.

SpaceX is developing space transportation, Starlink satellite internet, and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Purchasing computing equipment will expand the company’s capabilities, but the payback on these investments may take several years.

SpaceX plans to raise loans and debt financing

According to the Financial Times, about $10bn is expected to be raised in the form of bank loans, and another $30bn through investment-grade debt financing. Apollo Global Management may lead the transaction; asset manager Pimco is also participating in the talks. The deal is expected to be completed in 2027. The funds are intended to buy Nvidia chips needed for computing in AI systems.

After the IPO, SpaceX’s net debt declined

Milchakova notes that after the initial public offering in June 2026, SpaceX saw simultaneous growth in both its debt obligations and its cash holdings. This made it possible to reduce net debt in Q2 from $12.6bn to $4.1bn.

Net debt is debt obligations net of cash. Its ratio to EBITDA—earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization—is about 1.1. In the analyst’s view, this is a relatively low debt load for the U.S. technology sector.

AI investments could increase pressure on cash flow

New borrowing of $40bn could significantly change the company’s position. As the raised funds are spent on equipment, net debt may rise if increased cash inflows from the business do not offset these costs.

Milchakova allows for a multiple increase in the net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio. Servicing a large loan will require substantial interest payments, while returns from investments in data centers and AI infrastructure may emerge only in a few years.

Therefore, for investors, not only the scale of purchases matters, but also the cost of financing, the maturities of the obligations, and the ability of the new capacity to generate cash flow. In the analyst’s assessment, after raising such a loan, the risks of investing in SpaceX shares and bonds could increase noticeably.

AI development requires ever more borrowed funds

Earlier, Freedom Broker explained SpaceX’s losses by the high costs of its business. Milchakova noted that the space industry requires large investments, so the presence of losses in itself does not mean there are no prospects.

In June 2026, SpaceX conducted the largest IPO in history, raising $75bn. The company priced shares at $135 per share, and its valuation was about $1.8trn. Now plans to raise another $40bn through debt financing show how significant the investment required for the further expansion of the business is.

In October, the analyst also warned about the impact of the AI race on the debt market. The need to finance computing infrastructure increases borrowing and may contribute to rising bond yields. SpaceX’s plans show the scale of funds needed for the further expansion of AI capacity.

This is not an individual investment recommendation.