Freedom maintained its “Buy” rating on i-80 Gold after weak quarterly results

Weak results from i-80 Gold (IAUX) may trigger a short-term decline in the stock; however, a significant sell-off would be excessive, according to Freedom Broker analysts Vitaly Kononov and Medina Abdullina. For a long-term assessment of the company, adherence to deposit development timelines and the launch of its own processing capacity are more important. The experts maintained their “Buy” rating and a target price of $2.90 per share.

i-80 Gold is engaged in gold mining and deposit development in the U.S. state of Nevada. The company is ramping up production at Granite Creek, preparing to launch the Archimedes underground mine, and restoring the Lone Tree processing complex. In-house processing should reduce reliance on third-party facilities and improve business economics.

Sales growth did not offset higher costs

According to the Q3 2026 report, i-80 Gold’s revenue totaled $32.7 million. This is 34% higher than the previous quarter, but materially below Freedom’s forecast of $49.9 million. Gold sales increased by 45% versus the prior quarter to 7,744 ounces. Part of the positive effect was offset by a 7% decline in the average realized price to $4,211 per ounce.

Production rose 5% quarter over quarter to 11,685 ounces. At the same time, staff turnover at the contractor constrained work at Granite Creek and slowed access to higher-grade zones. Gross profit fell 43% versus the previous quarter to $5 million. Adjusted net loss widened from $41.2 million to $48.2 million amid higher costs for project advancement, resource evaluation, and exploration. Adjusted loss per share was $0.06 versus the market’s expected $0.04 and Freedom’s forecast of $0.02.

Archimedes and Lone Tree remain key to valuing the company

The start of production mining at the Archimedes underground mine is still planned by the end of 2026. The company expects the first gold pour at the upgraded Lone Tree complex in Q4 2027.

Freedom believes that bringing Lone Tree online will enable a shift from processing ore at third-party facilities to using in-house capacity. This should boost margins and support cash flow.

At the same time, management now expects annual production to come in in the lower half of the guidance range. In particular, recognition of gold production from Archimedes oxide ore is being moved from Q4 2026 to Q1 2027. This shift should be distinguished from the underground mining start-up schedule, which remains unchanged.

Lower spending will partially ease pressure on cash flow

Cash outflow from operating activities declined from $49.6 million in Q2 to $32.5 million in Q3. Cash on hand meanwhile decreased to $411.4 million. The company expects operating and capital expenditures to come in closer to the lower end of annual targets. Spending on Lone Tree will be below the original $140–160 million range due to the timing of payments. This supports current liquidity but does not imply a comparable reduction in the project’s total cost.

Freedom estimates that near-term revenue and earnings forecasts may need to be revised downward. However, maintaining the main project development timelines supports the long-term investment thesis. The key risks are launch delays, budget overruns, ongoing cash burn, and a decline in gold prices.

Why analysts maintain a positive view

Previously, Freedom Broker pointed to a gap between i-80 Gold’s production and sales: in Q2, limited third-party processing capacity prevented the company from selling its entire mined volume. Developing in-house infrastructure remains an important condition for removing this constraint.

In addition, the company raised about $787.5 million under a recapitalization program. This strengthened its financial position and allowed it to focus on project execution. Now, the determining factor for the shares is i-80 Gold’s ability to meet production plans and improve profitability.

This is not an individual investment recommendation.