Freedom raised Amgen’s target price to $470 but downgraded the rating to “Hold”

Strong sales of key drugs support Amgen’s (AMGN) financial outlook, but after the rally the stock is already close to fair value, according to Freedom Broker analysts Ilya Zubkov, Boris Tolkachev and Aydyn Seytzhapbar. They raised the target price from $450 to $470, while simultaneously downgrading the recommendation from “Buy” to “Hold”.

Amgen is an international biotechnology company developing medicines for the treatment of oncological, cardiovascular, inflammatory and other diseases. Its portfolio includes marketed drugs and promising pipeline developments, including the anti-obesity therapy MariTide. The company’s future results depend on the ability of new products to offset intensifying competition in mature segments.

Revenue and profit beat Freedom’s forecast

According to the Q3 2026 report, Amgen’s revenue rose 8% year over year to $10.4 billion. That is $236 million above Freedom’s estimate. Adjusted earnings per share increased 14% to $6.45 versus the analysts’ forecast of $5.90.

The main contributors to the growth were UPLIZNA, Repatha, IMDELLTRA and EVENITY. Their momentum more than offset a decline in Prolia and XGEVA sales under pressure from biosimilars—drugs that are highly similar to original biologic medicines.

Which drugs supported the quarter

Sales of Repatha, which lowers cholesterol, exceeded $1 billion in a quarter for the first time. Revenue reached $1.09 billion, up 37% year over year. Sales of EVENITY for osteoporosis treatment rose 39% to $751 million. The result was supported by steady demand in the U.S. and an expanding pool of physicians prescribing the drug.

UPLIZNA, used for a range of autoimmune diseases, generated $451 million versus Freedom’s expected $341 million. Together with EVENITY, it accounted for the bulk of the revenue beat.

At the same time, not all positive deviations reflected stronger demand. Enbrel’s growth was partly explained by a revision of discount reserves and higher inventories in sales channels.

IMDELLTRA gained an opportunity to expand its use

Another positive factor was the results of the Phase III DeLLphi-305 study. In Freedom’s view, they open a potential path for using IMDELLTRA in the first-line treatment of small cell lung cancer—at the initial stage of therapy.

Expanded use could increase the drug’s addressable market. However, positive study data do not yet mean the relevant regulatory approval will be granted.

Another important area remains MariTide, an investigational anti-obesity drug. Key data from its Phase III program are not expected before 2027. Therefore, this potential source of growth does not yet provide grounds to count on a near-term confirmation of commercial prospects.

Full-year guidance raised for the second quarter in a row

Amgen raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $38.9–39.7 billion, and adjusted earnings per share to $22.90–23.70. In Freedom’s opinion, the repeated upward revision confirms the resilience of the core business.

The analysts also improved their estimates: they now expect full-year revenue of $39.5 billion instead of $39.2 billion and adjusted EPS of $23.66 instead of $23.34.

Why strong results did not lead to keeping the “Buy” rating

The target price increase reflects improved business forecasts. The downgrade is due to the fact that the share price has already risen significantly, including on the back of capital flowing into healthcare.

At the price of $460.28 used in the report, the $470 target implies upside of about 2.1% excluding dividends. In Freedom’s assessment, a significant portion of positive expectations is already priced in.

Previously, Freedom Broker raised Amgen’s target price to $450 after a strong Q2. The new report confirms business growth, but further significant re-rating will require additional research results and confirmation of the prospects for new drugs.

This is not an individual investment recommendation.