Investment Review №336. Choosing a direction
LONG CALL ON COIN
About the company
Coinbase (COIN) is one of the largest regulated crypto platforms, offering spot trading, derivatives, institutional infrastructure, and services built around stablecoins. The company’s strategy over recent quarters has been to turn Coinbase into an “all-in-one exchange” (crypto + other asset classes/products) and to increase the share of more stable revenue streams.
Idea
Buying a call option is a tactical bet on the sector’s continued “re-rating” amid expectations of clearer rules in the U.S. and a positive momentum in the cryptoasset market, as well as on the acceleration of Coinbase’s product expansion (24/7 derivatives, event contracts/prediction markets, stablecoin infrastructure).
| Strategy | Long Call |
| Ticker of the Underlying | COIN |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Strike and Option Type | CALL $260 |
| Expiration Date | 20.03.2026 |
| Current Price (Mid) | 22.675 |
| Strategy Cost | $2,267.50 |
| Greek Parameters |
Delta – 0.515 Gamma – 0.006 Vega — 0.429 Theta – -0.201 |
| Implied Volatility | 58,44% |
| Realized Volatility |
1М – 48.59% 3М – 59.23% 6М – 58.40% 12М – 71.63% |
P/L of the option strategy
Trade Parameters
| Strategy | Long Call on COIN |
| Strike | Long CALL $260 |
| Buying | +COIN*G3K260 |
| Expiration Date | 20.03.2026 |
| Margin Requirement | $2 268 |
| Entry Price | $3 900 |
| Max Profit | inf |
| Max Loss | $(2 268) |
| Expected return | 72% |
| Breakeven Point | $282.68 |
Key arguments
- Regulatory “tailwind” in the U.S.: a crypto market-structure bill has been introduced in the Senate (token classification and a clearer split of regulator responsibilities). Even the discussion stage often reduces the “regulatory risk premium” in the valuation of companies like Coinbase.
- Crypto rally on expectations of clearer rules: Bitcoin moved above ~$95k on news about the bill’s progress; historically, COIN is highly sensitive to the direction of the crypto market, so momentum in the underlying acts as a direct catalyst.
- 24/7 derivatives and rising open interest: Coinbase highlights the expansion of its futures lineup (including “pseudo-perpetual” style contracts) and the achievement/maintenance of high open interest on the U.S. regulated venue — supporting trading frequency and the “quality” of fee revenue.
- Expansion beyond “pure crypto”: the launch of stock trading and event contracts, plus steps into prediction markets (including deals/M&A in this vertical), strengthen the “all-in-one platform” narrative and increase retail engagement.
- Stablecoins as business infrastructure: the launch of “custom stablecoins” (white-label) expands the B2B segment and positions Coinbase not only as an exchange, but also as a payments infrastructure provider.
Position Management
If on the expiration date (20.03.26) the underlying price is above $260 but below $282.68, the investor will incur a loss of varying size. If the underlying price is below $260, the investor will realize the maximum loss of $2,268. If the underlying price is above the breakeven level ($282.68), the potential profit is unlimited; however, we recommend closing the position once the call option value reaches $3,900.