Investments in KazMunaiGas

Freedom Investments analysts assigned KMGZ shares a "Buy" rating. Potential return +21%*

* As of June 9, 2026. Not an investment recommendation. Trading in assets involves the risk of capital loss.

Growth factors

Revenue

KMG’s revenue for Q1 2026 amounted to KZT 2.48 trillion, up 11% YoY. Growth was driven by higher prices for oil and refined petroleum products. Revenue from crude oil and gas sales increased by 9.8% YoY to KZT 1.37 trillion, while revenue from refined petroleum products rose by 12% YoY to KZT 848 billion. Meanwhile, crude oil and gas condensate production declined by 12% YoY to 5.65 million tonnes due to temporary restrictions at Tengiz and the CPC. Total revenue, including other income, reached KZT 2.74 trillion, up 11% YoY.

EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA increased by 6.8% YoY to KZT 591 billion, while the EBITDA margin rose to 23.7% from 23.1% a year earlier. Net income nearly doubled to KZT 368 billion, supported by stronger operating performance, lower finance costs and the absence of significant asset write-offs.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow amounted to negative KZT 78 billion, compared with positive KZT 283 billion a year earlier. The decline was driven by a KZT 504 billion increase in accounts receivable and a 64% YoY rise in capital expenditures (CAPEX). At the same time, leverage remains among the lowest in the sector, with Net Debt/EBITDA at around 0.3x and cash reserves of approximately KZT 2.9 trillion.

Results and forecast

The results are assessed as neutral: growth in financial indicators was mainly supported by high oil prices, while operating volumes temporarily declined. Restrictions at Tengiz and the CPC have been lifted, while dividends from joint ventures are expected to support cash flow in Q2. Following the model update, the target price was lowered to KZT 39,100, implying upside potential of around 21%. Recommendation – Buy.

Analytics

Freedom Broker analysts' review of KazMunayGas

Key indicators of KMG

26%

In the oil production of the Republic of Kazakhstan

56%

In the transportation of oil of the Republic of Kazakhstan

80%

In oil refining of the Republic of Kazakhstan

21%

Assets to GDP of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Advantages of investing in KMG

A Strategically Important National Company

KazMunayGas is a vertically integrated oil and gas company. It operates across the entire value chain, from exploration and crude oil production to transportation, refining and the sale of refined petroleum products. Its status as a national company gives KMG a strategic role in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas industry and provides advantages in subsoil use.

Strong Oil and Gas Asset Base

KMG’s key wholly owned production assets are Ozenmunaigas JSC and Embamunaigas JSC. KMG also participates in Kazakhstan’s largest oil and gas projects, including Tengiz. Together, these megaprojects account for a significant share of the country’s crude oil production. Oil is transported through various routes, including the CPC system.

Development of Refining and Petrochemicals

KMG is also developing its refined petroleum products and petrochemicals businesses. One of its new areas is polypropylene production. The group plans to develop butadiene and polyethylene projects. Expanding the petrochemicals business could increase the depth of raw material processing and create additional sources of revenue.

Share Price Upside Potential

8 406 KZT

IPO Price

39 100 KZT

Target price

21%

Current growth potential

Frequently Asked Questions

Where are KazMunayGas shares traded?

Shares of NC KazMunayGas JSC are traded on the KASE stock exchange under the ticker KMGZ. The company completed its IPO in 2022 at a price of KZT 8,406 per share. KMG shares are also available on the Astana International Exchange under the ticker KMG.

How can I buy KMG shares?

To buy KMG shares, you need to open and fund a brokerage account, then submit a trade order through the broker’s mobile app or web platform. Before making a transaction, investors should review information about the company and the risks associated with investing. An account can be opened in the Freedom Broker mobile app.

What is the upside potential of KMG shares?

According to Freedom Broker analysts’ estimate as of June 9, 2026, the target price for KMG shares is KZT 39,100. At that time, the upside potential was 21%. The estimate may change following the publication of financial statements, movements in oil prices and other significant events.

What affects the price of KMG shares?

The share price may be affected by oil prices, crude oil production volumes, the performance of the Tengiz and CPC projects, revenue, EBITDA, net income, leverage, dividends and overall stock market conditions.

Does KazMunayGas pay dividends?

Yes. Based on its 2025 results, KMG shareholders approved dividends of KZT 573.66 per ordinary share, 16.7% more than a year earlier. The total payout amounted to KZT 350 billion. Dividend payments began on June 5, 2026.

Future dividend payments are not guaranteed. They depend on free cash flow, financial results, leverage, capital expenditures and the company’s investment plans.

What risks are associated with buying KMG shares?

Investing always involves the risk of capital loss. Share prices may rise or fall. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.

The main risk factors for KMG include changes in oil prices, lower production volumes, higher capital expenditures (CAPEX), increased accounts receivable, production restrictions and changes in market conditions.

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Investing with Freedom Broker

Transparently

The company's activities are regulated by the Committee of the Astana International Financial Center for the Regulation of Financial Services (Astana Financial Services Authority, AFSA)

Reliable

The Company operates on the basis of the License for Regulated Activities No. AFSA-A-LA-2020-0019 issued by AFSA. Rating “B-/B” from the international agency S&P Global

At the international level

The company is part of a holding company regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC, USA)

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