Investments in KazMunaiGas
Freedom Broker analysts assigned KMGZ shares a "Buy" rating. Potential return +32%*
* As of April 6, 2026. Not an investment recommendation. Investments and the risk of capital loss are always linked.
Growth factors
Revenue
KMG’s revenue in Q4 totaled KZT 2.3 tn – up 17% YoY and down 10% QoQ. The growth was driven by a 5% YoY depreciation of the tenge. Revenue from crude oil increased by 8.3% YoY to KZT 1.1 tn, while petroleum products rose by 30% YoY to KZT 979 bn, supported by higher throughput at Romanian refineries. Production at megaprojects grew by 28% YoY due to TCO expansion. Total revenue including other income reached KZT 2.6 tn (+21% YoY).
EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA amounted to KZT 334 bn (−5% YoY, −55% QoQ). Margin slightly declined to 23.4% from 23.9% in Q3 amid rising costs and transportation expenses (+30% YoY). Share of income from joint ventures increased by 78% YoY to KZT 289 bn. Net profit attributable to KMG shareholders was KZT 78 bn (−65% YoY), due to FX losses of KZT 163 bn.
Cash Flow
Free cash flow totaled KZT 138 bn (−26% YoY). Long-term debt decreased by 11% YoY to KZT 3,244 bn following early redemption of Eurobonds. Net debt declined by 23% QoQ, while NetDebt/EBITDA reached a record low of 0.16x, reflecting the company’s strong financial position.
Results and forecast
The report is neutral: the decline in quarterly profit was expected due to tenge appreciation and FX losses. Positives include a record-low leverage level and cash accumulation exceeding KZT 3 tn. Taking into account higher oil price forecasts and updated models for TCO and CPC, the target price is KZT 41,700 with a 32% upside. Recommendation – Buy.
Analytics
Freedom Broker analysts' review of KazMunayGas
Key indicators of KMG
26%
In the oil production of the Republic of Kazakhstan
56%
In the transportation of oil of the Republic of Kazakhstan
80%
In oil refining of the Republic of Kazakhstan
21%
Assets to GDP of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Advantages of investing in KMG
The most important national company
KazMunaiGas is a vertically integrated oil and gas company engaged in oil exploration, production, transportation and refining. The Group has the status of a national company, which gives it priority advantages in terms of subsurface use of oil and gas fields.
A strong foundation of oil assets
The Group has a large number of valuable oil and gas assets. The main ones in oil production are JSC Ozenmunaigas and JSC Embamunaigas, in which the Group has a 100% stake. The Group also has stakes in three megaprojects, whose total production is approximately 65% of Kazakhstan's oil production.
Growth prospects
The Group intends to further develop its traditional business lines in the field of hydrocarbon production. At the same time, the Group is launching new production in oil refining. In particular, this year it is planned to launch a polypropylene plant with a capacity of 500 thousand tons. And by 2026 and 2027, KazMunaiGas plans to put into operation plants for the production of butadiene and polyethylene.
The growth potential of the stock
8 406 KZT
The price of accommodation
41 700 KZT
Target price
32%
Current growth potential
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Investing with Freedom Broker
Transparently
The company's activities are regulated by the Committee of the Astana International Financial Center for the Regulation of Financial Services (Astana Financial Services Authority, AFSA)
Reliable
The Company operates on the basis of the License for Regulated Activities No. AFSA-A-LA-2020-0019 issued by AFSA. Rating “B-/B” from the international agency S&P Global
At the international level
The company is part of a holding company regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC, USA)
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Investor Data
