Investments in KazMunaiGas
Freedom Investments analysts assigned KMGZ shares a "Buy" rating. Potential return +9%*
* As of September 2, 2026. Not an investment recommendation. Trading in assets involves the risk of capital loss.
Growth factors
Revenue
KMG’s revenue in Q2 2026 rose 37% YoY to KZT 3.09 tn. The main driver was higher oil prices, with global prices up 52% YoY. Revenue from crude oil and gas sales increased 43%, petroleum products – 31%, and oil transportation – 103%. Oil and gas condensate production rose 2.5% to 6.8 mn tonnes. Revenue including other income reached KZT 3.5 tn (+39% YoY).
EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA increased 45% YoY to KZT 1.03 tn, while the margin improved from 27.5% to 28.7%. Net income attributable to shareholders rose 53% to KZT 520 bn. Finance costs declined 13% to KZT 72 bn.
Cash Flow
Free cash flow reached KZT 843 bn, up 111% YoY. Growth was driven by higher dividends from joint ventures and a doubling of operating cash flow. Net debt increased 47% QoQ due to the purchase of Samruk-Kazyna bonds, although leverage remains low at around 0.4x Net Debt/EBITDA.
Results and forecast
Analysts view the report positively: key financial indicators showed strong growth, while operating volumes remained stable. At the same time, the stronger tenge reduced forecast export revenues in KZT terms. The target price was lowered from KZT 39,100 to KZT 38,200, implying 9% upside. Recommendation – Hold. Key risks are lower oil prices and restrictions affecting CPC operations.
Analytics
Freedom Broker analysts' review of KazMunayGas
Key indicators of KMG
26%
In the oil production of the Republic of Kazakhstan
56%
In the transportation of oil of the Republic of Kazakhstan
80%
In oil refining of the Republic of Kazakhstan
21%
Assets to GDP of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Advantages of investing in KMG
A Strategically Important National Company
KazMunayGas is a vertically integrated oil and gas company. It operates across the entire value chain, from exploration and crude oil production to transportation, refining and the sale of refined petroleum products. Its status as a national company gives KMG a strategic role in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas industry and provides advantages in subsoil use.
Strong Oil and Gas Asset Base
KMG’s key wholly owned production assets are Ozenmunaigas JSC and Embamunaigas JSC. KMG also participates in Kazakhstan’s largest oil and gas projects, including Tengiz. Together, these megaprojects account for a significant share of the country’s crude oil production. Oil is transported through various routes, including the CPC system.
Development of Refining and Petrochemicals
KMG is also developing its refined petroleum products and petrochemicals businesses. One of its new areas is polypropylene production. The group plans to develop butadiene and polyethylene projects. Expanding the petrochemicals business could increase the depth of raw material processing and create additional sources of revenue.
Share Price Upside Potential
8 406 KZT
IPO Price
38 200 KZT
Target price
9%
Current growth potential
Frequently Asked Questions
Where are KazMunayGas shares traded?
Shares of NC KazMunayGas JSC are traded on the KASE stock exchange under the ticker KMGZ. The company completed its IPO in 2022 at a price of KZT 8,406 per share. KMG shares are also available on the Astana International Exchange under the ticker KMG.
How can I buy KMG shares?
To buy KMG shares, you need to open and fund a brokerage account, then submit a trade order through the broker’s mobile app or web platform. Before making a transaction, investors should review information about the company and the risks associated with investing. An account can be opened in the Freedom Broker mobile app.
What is the upside potential of KMG shares?
According to Freedom Broker analysts’ estimate as of June 9, 2026, the target price for KMG shares is KZT 39,100. At that time, the upside potential was 21%. The estimate may change following the publication of financial statements, movements in oil prices and other significant events.
What affects the price of KMG shares?
The share price may be affected by oil prices, crude oil production volumes, the performance of the Tengiz and CPC projects, revenue, EBITDA, net income, leverage, dividends and overall stock market conditions.
Does KazMunayGas pay dividends?
Yes. Based on its 2025 results, KMG shareholders approved dividends of KZT 573.66 per ordinary share, 16.7% more than a year earlier. The total payout amounted to KZT 350 billion. Dividend payments began on June 5, 2026.
Future dividend payments are not guaranteed. They depend on free cash flow, financial results, leverage, capital expenditures and the company’s investment plans.
What risks are associated with buying KMG shares?
Investing always involves the risk of capital loss. Share prices may rise or fall. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
The main risk factors for KMG include changes in oil prices, lower production volumes, higher capital expenditures (CAPEX), increased accounts receivable, production restrictions and changes in market conditions.
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Investing with Freedom Broker
Transparently
The company's activities are regulated by the Committee of the Astana International Financial Center for the Regulation of Financial Services (Astana Financial Services Authority, AFSA)
Reliable
The Company operates on the basis of the License for Regulated Activities No. AFSA-A-LA-2020-0019 issued by AFSA. Rating “B-/B” from the international agency S&P Global
At the international level
The company is part of a holding company regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC, USA)
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