In the first quarter of 2025, KazMunayGas reported revenue of 2.2 trillion tenge — up 0.6% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter. Growth was driven by increased oil production and sales, as well as higher refining volumes at the Petromidia refinery. Including other income, total revenue reached 2.5 trillion tenge (-1% y/y, +14% q/q).
Investments in KazMunaiGas
Freedom Broker analysts assigned KMGZ shares a "Buy" rating. Potential return +22%*
* As of 06/04/2025. Not an investment recommendation. Investments and the risk of capital loss are always linked.
Growth factors
Revenue
EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 amounted to 553 billion tenge — a 23% increase year-on-year and 57% growth quarter-on-quarter. This was mainly due to higher dividends from joint ventures and increased depreciation and amortization. The EBITDA margin rose to 23%, compared to 17% in Q4 2024.
Cash Flow
Free cash flow reached 283 billion tenge (+96% y/y, +52% q/q), primarily supported by dividends from joint ventures. KazMunayGas's net debt decreased by 14% quarter-on-quarter and by 38% year-on-year.
Results and forecast
KazMunayGas’s financial results can be viewed as neutral amid stagnant oil prices. Overall, the changes led to a slight increase in the target price of KMG shares to 17,900 KZT, implying an upside potential of 22%. Recommendation – Buy.
Analytics
Freedom Broker analysts' review of KazMunayGas
Key indicators of KMG
26%
In the oil production of the Republic of Kazakhstan
56%
In the transportation of oil of the Republic of Kazakhstan
80%
In oil refining of the Republic of Kazakhstan
21%
Assets to GDP of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Advantages of investing in KMG
The most important national company
KazMunaiGas is a vertically integrated oil and gas company engaged in oil exploration, production, transportation and refining. The Group has the status of a national company, which gives it priority advantages in terms of subsurface use of oil and gas fields.
A strong foundation of oil assets
The Group has a large number of valuable oil and gas assets. The main ones in oil production are JSC Ozenmunaigas and JSC Embamunaigas, in which the Group has a 100% stake. The Group also has stakes in three megaprojects, whose total production is approximately 65% of Kazakhstan's oil production.
Growth prospects
The Group intends to further develop its traditional business lines in the field of hydrocarbon production. At the same time, the Group is launching new production in oil refining. In particular, this year it is planned to launch a polypropylene plant with a capacity of 500 thousand tons. And by 2026 and 2027, KazMunaiGas plans to put into operation plants for the production of butadiene and polyethylene.
The growth potential of the stock
8 406 KZT
The price of accommodation
17 900 KZT
Target price
22%
Current growth potential
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Investing with Freedom Broker
Transparently
The company's activities are regulated by the Committee of the Astana International Financial Center for the Regulation of Financial Services (Astana Financial Services Authority, AFSA)
Reliable
The Company operates on the basis of the License for Regulated Activities No. AFSA-A-LA-2020-0019 issued by AFSA. Rating “B-/B” from the international agency S&P Global
At the international level
The company is part of a holding company regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC, USA)
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Investor Data
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