Двухнедельный обзор фондовых рынков №343. Возвращение «быков»

Freedom Broker’s analyst team has prepared a strategy report with two key takeaways: a short‑term inflation shock and a rotation toward AI infrastructure beneficiaries. Headlines have led many investors to mistake the recent correction for the onset of a crisis, but the data does not support that view: consensus currently points to 15% S&P 500 EPS growth in 2026. The market is simply reassessing what it is willing to pay for those earnings—i.e., this is multiple compression, not a collapse in the economy or corporate fundamentals. Notably, nearly 82% of that compression has come from the IT sector, which accounts for roughly a third of the index.  

Part of the pressure reflects concern about near‑term inflation stemming from the oil shock and, by extension, higher policy rates. The gap between short‑ and long‑term inflation expectations has widened to 90 bps, while the 2026 Brent consensus has moved from $63 to $83 per barrel in just a month. We are more constructive on oil prices, but even our base case assumes Brent averaging around $85 through August.

That helps explain equities’ heightened sensitivity to short‑term inflation: the S&P 500’s correlation with the one‑year inflation swap is now -0.61, its most negative since last year’s post‑tariff shock. Investors should therefore watch not only earnings season but also the trajectory of inflation expectations and the tone of Fed communications. If the oil shock does not embed into long‑term expectations, the recovery could be faster than current market nerves suggest.  

The second theme is familiar: investor interest is shifting from software toward infrastructure—utilities, industrials, and data‑center operators—because AI’s new scarce resource is megawatts. The IEA projects data‑center power consumption will rise from 415 TWh in 2024 to nearly 945 TWh by 2030, with the U.S. and China accounting for about 80% of the increase. Data centers could represent up to 17% of U.S. electricity demand by decade‑end. Corporate activity reflects this trend: Google has signed agreements with multiple energy providers, and Microsoft, together with Chevron, is discussing a 2,500‑MW project in Texas using GE turbines. Such partnerships are proliferating, and their significance is growing—especially amid a short‑term but tangible energy shock. We see a case for greater portfolio allocation to generation, distribution, and infrastructure services—names ranging from GE Vernova (GEV) and Iron Mountain (IRM) to NRG Energy (NRG) and grid/data‑center contractors. 

Technically, the S&P 500 does not look compelling, but U.S. corporate fundamentals remain solid. Our current weighted‑average year‑end target is 7,300, implying roughly 10% upside from current levels. This already factors in the likelihood of continued geopolitical tensions and Brent at $120 per barrel. For the full report, please contact your investment adviser.