Двухнедельный обзор фондовых рынков №343. Возвращение «быков»

FDA Approves Oral GLP-1 Drug by Eli Lilly

Following the December approval of Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy, the FDA on April 1, 2026 approved Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 therapy under the brand Foundayo. The decision marks a key inflection point, as oral GLP-1s emerge as a new class of potential blockbuster therapies with commercial scale comparable to injectables. Management highlights a simplified administration profile alongside an aggressive pricing strategy—$25/month for commercially insured patients and $149/month for cash-pay via LillyDirect with home delivery—supporting rapid uptake and scale. The company has already filed for approval in >40 countries. Inclusion in Medicare Part D, expected in July 2026, is set to materially expand access among elderly and comorbid populations. Separately, Lilly plans to file for a type 2 diabetes indication in 2026, unlocking an additional large, high-margin addressable market.

FS Analyst Consensus on Expected Foundayo Sales ($ m)
Source: FactSet

Entergy and Meta Reach Electricity Supply Deal 

Entergy (ETR) signed an updated agreement with Meta to supply power to a hyperscale data center in northeast Louisiana, under which Meta fully covers energy supply costs and associated infrastructure. The deal is expected to deliver ~ $2.0bn in cumulative customer savings over 20 years, effectively eliminating incremental tariff pressure for the core customer base. To support rising data center demand, Entergy is executing a large-scale investment program, including >5.2GW of new gas-fired generation capacity, expansion of high-voltage transmission, storage deployment, and broader grid upgrades. Strategically, the agreement reinforces a full cost-recovery framework for large-scale data center operators, whereby AI-driven load growth translates directly into CapEx expansion and regulated asset base growth without burdening existing customers.

Stock Price and Moving Averages
Source: FactSet

Meta Hit by Adverse Court Rulings 

Meta and Google lost a landmark case in Los Angeles over teen addiction to social media. A jury found the platforms’ design harmful to adolescent mental health and awarded $6m in damages. The ruling is widely viewed as precedent-setting, effectively reframing social media platforms from neutral content intermediaries into potentially “defective product” manufacturers—exposing them to direct liability for product design. The case is increasingly compared to historic litigation against the tobacco industry (Big Tobacco moment). If courts mandate removal or restriction of engagement-maximizing features—such as infinite scroll, autoplay, push notifications, algorithmic content amplification, and appearance-altering filters—user engagement among younger cohorts could structurally decline, weighing on long-term ad monetization. Lower engagement directly translates into reduced ad impressions and revenue for major platforms. The ruling comes amid a broader global regulatory tightening on social media access for minors. France is considering restricting access below age 15, Spain is evaluating a 16-year threshold, Austria is debating lower age limits, while Australia has already banned social media access for users under 16. 

Stock Price Performance. 
Source: FactSet

Memory Chip Sector Correction 

Over recent weeks, memory producers have undergone a sharp correction following the release of Google’s TurboQuant algorithm, a decline in spot DRAM prices, and several incremental news flow items. Shares of leading Korean DRAM producers (SK Hynix, Samsung) and Micron Technology (MU) declined ~15–25% over the two-week period. NAND and HDD manufacturers also sold off, albeit to a lesser extent. While the correction appears broad-based, underlying fundamentals remain largely intact, and investors have already begun rebuilding exposure across the segment. First, concerns around TurboQuant appear overstated: (1) the algorithm has been known since last year and is designed for high-precision FP32 workloads rather than current AI inference formats (FP4/FP8); (2) Nvidia already deploys KV-cache compression techniques that are significantly more efficient, albeit model-specific; (3) algorithmic improvements in AI are frequent and historically have expanded, rather than reduced, total compute demand consistent with the Jevons paradox. Second, the memory chip spot market: (1) saw only a ~1-week price correction after select consumer electronics manufacturers trimmed output in response to elevated memory pricing; (2) spot now accounts for ≤5% of total DRAM market volume, while the industry has largely shifted to long-term contracts with aggressively rising pricing—Q2 implied +58–63% QoQ for commodity DRAM and +70–75% QoQ for NAND. Meanwhile, 100% of 2026 HBM output is already sold out, with a meaningful portion of 2027 capacity already contracted. The memory supercycle remains structurally underpinned by capacity constraints and continuously rising AI-driven demand QoQ, reinforcing the view that the recent pullback represents an attractive entry point for long-term investors. Memory component spend as a share of hyperscaler CapEx is set to continue trending higher over time.

Share of Memory Components in Hyperscaler CapEx
Source: SemyAnalysis, Freedom Broker

Nike (NYSE: NKE) Hits 2014 Low

Nike reported FY26 Q3 results. Greater China remained a key drag—sales decline persisted but was broadly expected, decelerating to 7% YoY. The U.S. domestic market slowed to 3% YoY, with positive momentum concentrated solely in footwear. Total revenue came in at $11.28bn—flat YoY and ahead of consensus. On a constant currency (cc) basis, revenue declined 4% YoY. Both top-line and profitability remain under pressure. Management guided FY26 Q4 revenue to a low-single-digit % decline YoY, while gross margin—at 40.2% in Q3—is expected to compress by 175–225bps.

The print and cautious commentary triggered another leg of downside. The stock now trades at its lowest level since 2014, with a ~75% drawdown from peak. Despite the derating, valuation does not screen particularly compelling: forward P/E stands at ~23x, with P/B at 4.6x. 

Nike Stock Price Performance 
Source:  FactSet